by Pascale Trouillaud*

China's communist leaders are facing a year full of sensitive anniversaries that could stoke social tensions at a time when the country is already on edge amid the global economic crisis, analysts say.
According to China experts, of particular concern is the 50th anniversary of an uprising in Tibet on March 10, 1959, which was quashed by the Chinese army and triggered the Dalai Lama's escape to India.
The one-year anniversary of the latest riots in the Himalayan region -- when violence erupted in the capital Lhasa and other Tibetan areas against Chinese rule -- then falls on March 14.
March 29 will mark 30 years since the arrest of high-profile dissident Wei Jingsheng and the first 'Beijing Spring', a brief period of political opening up in China that was then quashed by authorities.
Just over two months later, police and the army will be on edge for the 20th anniversary of the repression of pro-democracy protests on and near Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, that left hundreds, possibly thousands dead.
These are all opportunities for citizens to petition the government online, for meetings, the laying down of wreaths, protests, and even riots.
"In history, anniversaries have often been an opportunity for society to express its discontent," said Jean-Philippe Beja, head of research at the CNRS, a French public research centre.
The 20th anniversary of the second 'Beijing Spring', or the repression of the Tiananmen Square protests, is the most dreaded by the Chinese leadership, Beja said.
June 4 left "a very deep mark on the entire society... and the leaders are very concerned about a celebration that could revive ideas of democracy," Beja said.
"The detention of Liu Xiaobo is a sign that demonstrates their nervousness," he added, referring to the arrest last month of one of the leading dissidents of June 1989.
"It is obvious that from April 15 to June 15, Tiananmen Square will be under special surveillance."
Among other sensitive dates, April 15 marks the death of Hu Yaobang -- a former Communist Party head who fell from grace due to his reformism -- which was the trigger for the Tiananmen protests.
And April 25, the tenth anniversary of the surrounding of the leaders' compound Zhongnanhai in Beijing by 10,000 practitioners of the spiritual movement Falungong, could also lead to unrest.
These symbolic dates will fall amid serious economic difficulties in China, which is faced with slowing growth and an increase in unemployment with the global financial crisis.
"We are entering a year of economic and social crisis (with) unemployment, of mingong [migrant workers] of course but also of graduates," said Beja.
The government "is extremely scared that there will be a politicisation of social demands."
But according to Jean-Louis Rocca, a sociologist at Tsinghua University in Beijing, the crisis could actually help the communist leaders in their quest to silence dissent.
"People are scared of (instability) even more than before. That the crisis can entail risks is certain, but the link with politics does not seem to me to be very likely," he said.
Hu Xingdou, an economics professor at the Beijing University of Technology, also said that "no one wants to see China in disorder."
"The Chinese government is determined to maintain stability at all costs [and] knows what to do to succeed."
The anniversary that Beijing hopes to turn into a unifying moment is the celebration on October 1 of the 60 years of the People's Republic of China.
This will give the government a chance to demonstrate the regime's power, with its first military parade in 10 years.
 
* AFP